Fantasy football season is almost underway, and what better way to celebrate than some good old fantasy predictions that are guaranteed not to age well? In this article, I’ll be discussing some players I like, some players I don’t like, and some fun risks to take if you think that your heart rate isn’t high enough during the NFL season.

Overrated: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans

 

I never thought I’d be saying this about Henry, but I really don’t like the idea of picking him in the first round. Henry, who’s averaged over 1500 yards over the past 4 seasons, has been a beacon of consistency and quality at a running back position that is constantly subject to severe injuries and surprising underperformance.  

While some of fantasy’s former top running backs, such as Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Ezekiel Elliot have fallen off the map in the past few seasons, Henry has remained at or near the top of his game in each season he’s played.  

The issue with Henry isn’t talent or even team structure (as Henry has been remarkably consistent despite the Titans regressing the past few seasons) but rather the question of durability. Henry is going to be turning 30 years old soon, but his work rate doesn’t appear to be lightening up at all.  

It doesn’t help that the Titans have a complete lack of a contingency plan for Henry, nor do they have a capable quarterback who can do enough in the passing game to lighten Henry’s load. To me, this is serious cause for concern, especially since Henry has already suffered a broken foot in his career (back in 2021).  

It’s also worth mentioning that the aforementioned Cook, Kamara, and Elliot all began to regress around age 27-28 under lesser workloads than Henry had. Unless his durability is truly next-level, I would expect injuries and age to start catching up to Henry sooner rather than later, especially with the unimpressive Ryan Tannehill under center for yet another season. If Henry falls to the second round, he’s a good pick and a potential steal, but don’t draft him as the top guy for your team. 

Underrated: George Kittle, TE, 49ers

 

Though it seems silly to refer to a consensus top-5 tight end in all of football as underrated, that’s exactly the position that Kittle is in this season. Last year saw Kittle’s numbers regress dramatically with Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo under center, with just 4 touchdowns in his first 9 games.  

That all changed once former Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy took over at quarterback in week 13, as Kittle would see his red zone targets increase dramatically. The Iowa product would take advantage of this newfound attention, scoring a whopping 7 touchdowns in the final 4 games of the season, pacing the tight end position in TDs during that time. 

With the 49ers set to move forward with Brock Purdy as their full-time quarterback, this upcoming season should bode well for Kittle from a fantasy perspective. Although trade deadline acquisition Christian McCaffrey should get plenty of attention in the red zone and in the passing game, Kittle should be firmly entrenched as a top-3 offensive target for the 49ers each time he takes the field.

Kittle’s 2022 season also saw him reclaim his spot as the team’s #1 red zone target as Purdy and star wide receiver Deebo Samuel failed to establish a good rapport in the season’s waning weeks.  

With a full offseason of work between Purdy and Kittle, it would be no surprise if Kittle replicated his torrid pace at points throughout this upcoming season, and he should be on everyone’s shortlist of premier tight ends to draft. 

Fun Risk: Cam Akers, RB, Rams

 

It feels like this is the case every year with Akers, who is prone to having monstrous performances in between weeks of completely disappearing from the Rams’ offensive scheme. Say what you will about Akers, but nobody can deny his talent, which was on full display in the last 4 games of last season when he exploded for a combined 77.8 points across his last 4 games.  

The problem with Akers in fantasy has always been consistency. From weeks 1-12, Akers only eclipsed the 10-point threshold once (barely scraping by with 10.1 points in week 3). The reasons for his slump came down to poor YPC numbers (a problem that he seemed to fix late in the season) and Sean McVay not wanting to utilize him (a problem that he has no control over).  

Had Akers simply played poorly at the start of the season, I would implore people to draft him this year. Unfortunately, Rams head coach Sean McVay’s seemingly insatiable desire to sit his best players for no reason (a la Bill Belichick) makes me extremely wary about Akers from a fantasy perspective. He can have a solid game one week and can be bench riding for three more—it’s just how McVay is. 

The good news for Akers is that he has virtually no competition for reps at his position (the only other backs on the team are Kyren Williams and Zach Evans). McVay also said that Akers will be “a central figure” in the Rams offense this coming season, but this is also coming from the guy whose offensive strategy has devolved into “throw the ball to Cooper Kupp” over the past season or so. 

Were I to chance Akers’ boom/bust ratio this year, I’d give him a solid 70/30 on account of a complete lack of competition at his position, as well as McVay seemingly wising up to his talent. However, the Rams will most likely be mediocre at best this year, meaning that they might have to abandon the run game in favor of a passing-oriented attack in order to play catch-up. Additionally, McVay’s patience with his running backs is extremely low. Draft Akers, but tread with caution. 

With that, part 1 of this series concludes. Come back soon for part 2, and thanks for sticking around the blog despite my lengthy and unexcused absence, as I was quite busy with my internship this summer. Happy drafting!