2023 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 1-5

With the dust of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery settled, the debate has officially begun as to which players should go to which teams. It’s an exciting year to watch the NHL Draft, too—this upcoming draft is one of the deepest in recent memory, headlined by generational talent Connor Bedard and flanked by elite talents galore. Without further ado, let’s get cracking and see where the top 5 prospects should land.

1.) Chicago Blackhawks – Connor Bedard, C, Regina Pats (WHL) 

Bedard hoists the trophy for Team Canada at the 2023 World Junior Tournament. Bedard had 9 goals and 23 points in 7 games, setting the record for most points in the tournament.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Connor Bedard lands at #1 overall. Heralded as the best prospect to grace the draft since Connor McDavid took the NHL world by storm in 2015, Bedard not only dominates, but utterly stupefies the competition. In 57 games with the Regina Pats, Bedard scored an astounding 71 goals and 72 assists for a point total of 143. That’s a 2.5 per game average, which surpasses that of NHL superstars such as John Tavares, Nathan MacKinnon and Steven Stamkos. Connor McDavid himself averaged 2.55 points per game in his final junior season, just a hair above Bedard. 

Bedard’s sheer offensive potential is limitless. With his shooting prowess and nearly unprecedented game sense, he could walk into an NHL locker room and be a 50-goal scorer right now. His playmaking, skating, and stickhandling are at an elite level right now as well. While he still has a lot of work to do defensively, his defensive abilities should improve once he doesn’t have to entirely carry an NHL offense like he did for Regina.

Landing Connor Bedard is as big a boon to the Blackhawks’ rebuild as the franchise will ever be. Obviously, the Blackhawks are miles from contention, but Bedard is an incredible franchise centerpiece to build around. Chicago will now look to surround Bedard with elite wingers and defenders in order to maximize his offensive potential and minimize his defensive stress.

2.) Anaheim Ducks – Adam Fantilli, C, University of Michigan (NCAA)

Adam Fantilli takes the ice for the Michigan Wolverines. Fantilli set Big Ten Tournament records for goals (7) and points (11) in three games en route to a Michigan victory.

 While Bedard achieved an unparalleled level of success this past season, it doesn’t take anything away from the dominance of Adam Fantilli. In 36 games for a stacked Michigan squad, Fantilli paced the NCAA with 30 goals and 25 assists for a point total of 65, 12 more points than the next best player in Sean Farrell. Fantilli also won the Hobey Baker award as NCAA hockey’s most valuable player. 

Fantilli’s placement at #2 is arguably an insult to him, as he would be surefire #1 overall pick in a multitude of other drafts. He’s a very sturdy forward with his 6’2, 187-pound frame. As a skater, Fantilli is nearly unparalleled, with many analysts believing his skating to be superior to Bedard’s. He has a superb hockey IQ, which leads to him playing a nearly mistake-free game that lifts his linemates to a higher level. Fantilli uses his frame to his advantage and has shown the ability to play something of a bruising style of hockey despite his supreme skills.  

For the Anaheim Ducks, #2 overall is a great place to be, and a Fantilli-Trevor Zegras-Mason McTavish line could be one that dominates the NHL for years to come. There is obviously a sense of disappointment in losing out on both Sydney Crosby and Bedard by way of the draft lottery, but Adam Fantilli has shown all the traits necessary to be a superstar in the NHL. Anaheim’s war chest of prospects continues to grow, and they must now surround their 3 stud forwards with a defense and goaltending capable of retuning Anaheim to playoff glory.

3.) Columbus Blue Jackets – William Smith, C, USNTDP

Smith scored 9 goals and 20 points for Team USA in the 2023 World Junior Championship. Team USA took home the bronze medal in the tournament.

 While I personally have Smith ranked #5 in my overall prospect rankings, he is the best pure center left on the board. He also fits in well with a Columbus team that is both in need of a star center and a change of direction after often failing to develop players from Canandian junior teams over the past decade. Smith amassed 51 goals and 127 points in just 60 games for the United States development team and will immediately enter the NHL as a capable two-way forward that Columbus desperately needs on its top 6.  

Smith isn’t a particularly impressive skater, but his playmaking and anticipation abilities are nearly unparalleled in this draft and should mitigate the problems that he may have with NHL-level skating. He has a solid 6 foot, 172-pound frame, and should at least be able to keep up with NHL level physicality as he continues to add muscle. 

Smith isn’t a particularly flashy player, but he’s extremely talented and is arguably the most well-rounded player in the draft, which is exactly what Columbus could use to fill its hole at center. Star wingers Patrick Laine and Johnny Gaudreau will surely appreciate Smith’s great passing and deceptive abilities, and he could quickly ascend to NHL stardom with the Blue Jackets.

4.) San Jose Sharks – Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) 

Michkov with Russia’s U20 team in May of 2022. Michkov scored 3 goals in two games for the team, despite playing with players multiple years his senior.

No player’s position in the draft is as enigmatic as Matvei Michkov. At the beginning of this season, Michkov was seen as the undisputed 2nd best player in the 2023 class. Fast forward to now, and there is a strong concentration of pundits who believe that Michkov might slip out of the top 5. This is due to a combination of Adam Fantilli having arguably the best season in NCAA history and Michkov’s contract with St. Petersburg lasting until 2027, which is an issue that caused fellow Russian Kirill Kaprizov’s draft stock to tank in 2015. Despite the drama around him, Michkov had a superb season for a skater his age in the KHL, amassing 19 goals and 34 points in 39 games against pro-level competition. 

Michkov has been heralded by many as the best Russian NHL prospect since Alex Ovechkin, and this is backed up by his stats. On a year-by-year basis, Michkov’s point pace bests that of Russian NHL superstar wingers Artemi Panarin, Kirill Kaprizov, and Vladimir Tarasenko when they were Michkov’s age. Michkov has an elite stickhandling ability and a powerful shot that is almost unbecoming for someone of his size. He plays hockey at a higher level than any of the other top prospects on this list, and he’s already attained great success as an underaged player in a league ripe with players much more developed than him. The main drawbacks to his game are his diminutive frame (5’10, 148 lbs.) and tendency to play with a selfish style that can get him in trouble at the NHL level where teams play to contain top stars. Michkov will need to learn how to become a better team player in order to avoid being figured out early in his career. 

For the Sharks, drafting Michkov is a risk, and the investment is unlikely to bear fruit until a couple of years down the road. However, this is a team in which time is of abundance. San Jose is still in the infantile stages of its post-Pavelski era rebuild and the team hasn’t been fully gutted of players from those contending teams. When Michkov does eventually join the team, he’ll be a high-risk player, but one that the sharks can afford to take such risks on as a centerpiece of their rebuild. If San Jose can get a good team structure around Michkov, the sky is truly the limit.

5.) Montreal Canadiens – Leo Carlsson, C/LW, Örebro HK (SHL)

Carlsson scored 3 goals and 6 points in 7 games for Sweden at the 2023 World Junior Championship.

 Leo Carlsson has been one of the biggest risers in youth hockey this past season along with Adam Fantilli and Will Smith. This season, Carlsson potted 10 goals and 25 points in 44 games for Swedish club Örebro HK, showing a level of toughness and maturity that is well above that of many recent NHL prospects. Carlsson’s 6’3, 194-pound frame makes him immediately NHL ready from a physical standpoint. Carlsson has a certain level of poise on the ice that is demonstrated in his ability to produce at the professional level right now. He’s a level-headed player who takes advantage of his great playmaking abilities and high hockey IQ to dominate his shifts with seemingly little effort. He is also one of the more versatile players in this class, with the ability to play as both a natural center and a left-winger, which will be a great asset to a Montreal team that has a surplus of single-position players. 

Carlsson’s shot is good, not great, and his natural speed is not particularly impressive, but the main value that he brings to the table is his natural ability to elevate the team around him. Carlsson has repeatedly demonstrated his selflessness on the ice, often passing up shot opportunities in order to create a higher chance shot for a teammate. Carlsson’s size allows him to play a more physical brand of defense than other prospects, and his long reach and stickhandling abilities should make him a quality defensive piece. With his combination of size, strength, and smooth stickhandling and passing, Carlsson can be an instant impact player in the NHL. 

Montreal is a great landing spot for Carlsson. He will most likely be the heir apparent to their 2C position with young captain Nick Suzuki taking top-line duties. Carlsson may also shift to winger if Montreal would rather have former third overall pick Kirby Dach as their primary 2nd line puck handler. Either way, the team really can’t go wrong with drafting Carlsson, who would be fighting for the first overall pick in most drafts. Carlsson’s draft should complete Montreal’s young core of forwards, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him and the Canadiens in the playoffs next season.

With that, the top 5 picks are sorted out. Keep a look out for the next 5 picks to be covered in a future article!


2 responses to “2023 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 1-5”

  1. Josh Avatar
    Josh

    Love the website. Can you make an post about the Celtics.

    -Josh

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