Trying to predict how the Boston Red Sox will play on a season-to-season basis is the sports equivalent of trying to herd cats on crack. The team’s decisions are erratic and often seemingly stupid, but the seasons of inexplicable success and absurd failure are simply too intertwined for one to be able to accurately predict how the team will do every year.

The 2018-2022 Red Sox seasons epitomized this theory. In the span of five years, Boston took a loaded team to a World Series victory in 2018, brought all of the key pieces back in the following offseason, had a mediocre 2019 season and missed the playoffs, sold off the best player that the team had seen since the days of Ortiz and Pedroia, had a disastrous season in which they were bottom five team in the league in 2020, inexplicably ran to the ALCS in 2021, and then fell back to the AL East basement in 2022 despite signing superstar shortstop Trevor Story. I understand that this paragraph reads like word vomit, but that’s honestly the most accurate way to describe the Red Sox over the past five years. When a team’s seasonal results function akin to a slot machine, it makes any team prediction a daunting task. However, if you’ve been reading this blog for more than five minutes, you know that I am not afraid of having my opinions blow up in my face. Let’s tackle this recent Red Sox offseason and see where the team is at.

The number one grievance that people of had regarding the 2023 Red Sox offseason is simple: longtime shortstop maestro Xander Bogaerts is now wearing a Padres uniform. While the very sight of this might be enough to inspire riots throughout Boston, I actually don’t hate the idea of letting Bogaerts go. Don’t get me wrong, Bogey is a superb player who deserves to be one of the faces of whatever franchise he is apart of. He’s a great person and a Bostonian icon. However, no matter how much I love him, I cannot endorse signing him to an 11 year contract worth $280 million. On top of the likely reality that Bogaerts’ production will suffer severe falloff halfway through this deal, I’m of the opinion that we’ve seen the best of what he can do on the field. Bogaerts has only had one season in which he’s hit north of .300 in the past 5 years. He’s never hit more than 33 home runs in a season, and even that number represents more of an abnormality in his stat line than a consistent occurrence. He’s a plus defender, but defensive ability often goes hand in hand with age, and it’s doubtful that his fielding skills won’t naturally decline as he gets older. It’s just how life goes. The Bogaerts contract much less of a savvy move by the Padres and more of a decision that flexed their ability to write a paycheck. It’s not one that Boston would be wise to match, because it wasn’t meant to be matched. I believe that Chaim Bloom saw this.

Next up is the biggest signing Boston made this off-season: Japanese sensation Masataka Yoshida, who is coming off the most impressive season of his distinguished NPB career. As a member of the Orix Buffaloes (please change the name back to Blue Wave, guys) Yoshida had an astounding 2022 season, hitting everything in sight for a .335 batting average, 21 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 1.007 OPS. He also walked 80 times, and struck out just 41 times. While these aren’t stats that will directly translate to the MLB, Yoshida’s strengths are very clear. The guy is a master of plate discipline, so much so that he drew comparisons to Juan Soto, a notion that should have Red Sox fans hyped up, to say the least. The generosity of this comparison will be known in time, but Red Sox fans should know what to expect from Yoshida: disciplined, intelligent hitting, solid power, and mediocre defense. Granted, I’m higher on Yoshida than most, but I truly believe that this was a great signing that will pay off for Boston. The price was steep ($90 million plus a $15.4 million posting fee), but Red Sox ownership had some money to blow after letting Bogaerts walk, and this was probably one of the best ways they could have spent it.

Boston made some smaller signings to bolster the squad as well. Among these are power-hitting outfielder Adam Duvall (who hit a grand slam in the 2021 World Series for the Braves!), established set-up man Chris Martin, all-time great closer Kenley Jansen, former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, and former Dodgers stalwart Justin Turner. These are all relatively short-term signings, and I wouldn’t expect these guys to stick around for more than a year or two.

Boston’s off-season losses comprised of the aforementioned Bogaerts, oft-inured starter Nathan Eovaldi, star designated hitter JD Martinez, middle-rotation starter Michael Wacha, and outfielder Tommy Pham. Some other players, such as Rich Hill and Eric Hosmer, also departed, but are not expected to have major roles on their new teams.

So, what do I make of this off-season? Well, I’m certainly not a huge fan of it. Even at such a steep asking price, losing a franchise piece like Bogaerts hurts. Eovaldi and Wacha were solid parts of a mediocre at best Boston rotation last year, and now they’re gone. JD Martinez was always going to leave, but he and Eovaldi were two of the last remaining pieces from Boston’s 2018 World Series run. These departures might be best for business, but it doesn’t make them any less painful. At the same time, Boston made some solid short term moves that won’t really harm the team in the long run if they don’t work out. While many of their signings have considerable risk to them, the upside is ultimately solid. Boston also made good on one key long-term player this off-season, extending Rafael Devers for 10 years and $313 million.

This wasn’t an off-season that Boston fans will ever be happy with, but I really don’t think it was as bad as people say it was. Boston is going into this season with next to no expectations, and I think that this band of players might be able to step up and do well, especially now that the pressure is off. Boston might be in the basement right now, but that might not be the case for long this season. After all, this is baseball’s most unpredictable team.